Candidates associated with outgoing Colombia President Alvaro Uribe look set to dominate the May 30 Presidential contest.
BOGOTA -- According to the latest poll by Ipsos-Napoleon Franco published by Colombia newspaper Semana over the weekend, the former defense minister to Colombia President Alvaro Uribe, Juan Manuel Santos, is clearly ahead in the presidential polls with 36%. However, the polls indicate that Santos may not win the election outright in the first round on May 30th.
Former ambassador Noemi Sanin, who like Santos is also politically associated with President Uribe, is in second place in the polls with 17%.
While it is still too early to call a winner, Santos’ jump in popularity is remarkable: in an earlier poll only 23% of Colombians said they would vote for him versus the current vote intention of 36%. Sanin also moved up in the polls, more than tripling to 17% from only 5% a month ago.
In a potential second round between Santos and Sanin, the poll indicates that voters would support him with 44% of the vote against 30% for Sanin.
Colombia fiscal policy is likely to remain unaltered under Santos or Sanin. If Santos wins, pundits believe that Juan Carlos Echeverry, former planning director and economist for Latin Source, will likely be appointed to the Finance Ministry. Sanin would likely appoint Alberto Carrasquilla, a former finance minister under Uribe.
According to the poll, third place is tied between the candidate of the Green Party -- former Bogota Mayor Antanas Mockus -- and another candidate associated with President Uribe -- from Cambio Radical, German Vagas LLeras.