By Paula Vilella

CARACAS – Venezuela could close out the year with more than 18,000 murders, a scourge that is increasing and the solution to which, in the opinion of analysts, includes the disarmament of the civilian population.

It is calculated that in this country there are between 9 million and 15 million weapons in the hands of the public, the president of the Institute for Investigations of Coexistence and Citizen Security, or INCOSEC, Pedro Rangel, told Efe in an interview, drawing his figures from data from a congressional committee.

The media has determined that the average Venezuelan household has three weapons, something that is “completely out of proportion” in Rangel’s judgment since “the possession of weapons on the part of the civilian population notably influences the violence in the streets.”

INCOSEC figures gathered in the Caracas metropolitan area during the first half of 2009 show that 98 percent of the murders were committed with firearms and 60 percent of the bodies had been hit by more than five bullets.

This shows “exacerbated levels of violence,” Rangel said, noting that 36 percent of the victims were males between the ages of 15 and 29.

The Venezuelan Violence Observatory forecasts that, if the current trend is maintained, there will be 18,436 murders committed nationwide by the end of the year, and this estimate is “conservative” given that the final months of the year are usually the most violent, according to Observatory director Robeto Briceño-Leon.

From 1994 to 1998, the murder rate per 100,000 residents fell from 22 to 20, placing Venezuela among the Latin American countries with a moderately high rate of violence.

However, Venezuela now has a very high rate in the region, with an average of 40 deaths per day and 52 murders per 100,000 residents at the end of 2008.

Last year, there were more than 12,000 violent deaths in a country of 28 million inhabitants.

Concern over violence in society is rising among the public, which says that crime is the main problem besetting the country, according to Datanalisis opinion surveys.

Eighty percent of those surveyed say they are dissatisfied or very dissatisfied with the Hugo Chavez administration’s response in the matter.

However, Datanalisis director Luis Vicente Leon told Efe that “the president does not seem to be perceived by the Venezuelan population as being responsible” for the problem.

“When you ask them who is responsible for inflation, unemployment or shortages, the government or the president always bears an important share, a concrete responsibility. However, the responsibility fragments in an amazing way” in the case of crime, he added.

Chavez does not speak about the matter much at all because “he doesn’t want to make it into one of his problems,” and besides the bulk of the population believes that the problem has no solution, he said.

“In the poor neighborhoods, it doesn’t matter if they kill 60 or 70 ... in a weekend, they coexist with insecurity and they’ve done so for many years. Therefore, they don’t link it with Chavez but with poverty, with their circumstances,” Leon said.

At INCOSEC, Rangel disagrees with this analysis because – according to government figures – poverty levels have diminished significantly in Venezuela since Chavez took office in 1999.

In his judgment, the fact that 93 percent of crimes go unpunished constitutes “an invitation to the criminal and a blow to the pride of the law enforcement bodies.”

“We need a police model that is governed by transparency, equality and justice in the process of recruiting, supported by a system of social security and appropriate individual and collective equipment allocation,” Rangel said.

The steps that INCOSEC proposes following include pushing for the Weapons, Explosives and Munitions bill, activating a national disarmament plan and fostering changes in behavior in all sectors of society. EFE