MEXICO CITY – Mexico’s economic activity declined 1.4 percent in April, compared to the same month in 2018, due to a slowdown in the manufacturing and service sectors, the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI) said Monday.
The figure comes from the Global Economic Activity Index (IGAE), which shows that the secondary sector of the economy contracted 2.9 percent and the tertiary sector declined 0.80 percent, while the primary sector grew 1.3 percent, the INEGI said in a statement.
The IGAE, though, rose 0.10 percent in April, compared to the previous month, on a seasonally adjusted basis, due to an increase of 1.5 percent in manufacturing and a 2.6 percent drop in the agricultural sector and a 0.30 percent decline in the service sector.
The IGAE is a preliminary short-term gauge of economic trends in the country since it does not include all the economic categories used in calculating the gross domestic product (GDP).
Mexico’s GDP contracted 0.20 percent in the first quarter, compared to the October-December 2018 period, on a seasonally adjusted basis, the INEGI said.
Economists and financial institutions have revised their 2019 economic growth estimates downward several times and now see Mexico’s GDP expanding around 1.5 percent in 2019.
Some analysts have warned that the economy could slip into recession if US President Donald Trump were to impose tariffs on Mexico.
President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, however, is sticking to his forecast that Mexico’s economy will grow at an average annual rate of 4 percent during his six-year term, which ends in 2024.
On April 1, the Finance and Public Credit Secretariat said it expected the economy to grow at a real annualized rate of between 1.1 percent and 2.1 percent this year.
The Bank of Mexico revised its GDP estimate downward on May 29 to a range of between 0.80 percent and 1.8 percent, cutting its previous projection by 0.30 percentage points.
Mexico’s GDP grew 2 percent in 2018, marking a slight contraction from the 2.1 percent economic growth registered the previous year.