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  HOME | Opinion (Click here for more)

Beatrice Rangel: Why Trump Will Last and Lopez Obrador Marches to the Mexican Presidency
Former Venezuela Presidential Chief of Staff Beatrice Rangel on why President Trump will outlast his opponents while Lopez Obrador (so far) seemingly marches comfortably to the Mexican Presidential Palace

By Beatrice E. Rangel

Newspaper reading and newscast watching have truly become annoying and boring.

Almost all outlets predict the imminent demise of President Trump from the White House while supporting their views on the impeachment process that sent President Richard Nixon to San Clement for the rest of his life. And we watch a parade of people we thought dead or definitely retired forecasting the day and time President Trump will cease to enjoy the Republican support that brought him to the White House.

Needless to attempt to point out that this is the 21st century when information outlets have diversified to the point that makes the established media opinion building role impossible. To be sure -- lest they concentrate on the surviving “couch potatoes” of the Baby Boomer generation that still watch TV, read newspapers and listen to the radio at fixed times of the day -- the internet wins the opinion shaping battle.

But to these individuals, social media are the space to exchange pictures of themselves, their children and grandchildren and their vacation anecdotes. This segment nowadays is a minority, henceforth does not represent the opinion of most Americans let alone be good material for political forecast.

Second, is the fact that millennials have taken over as the new majority. Given that they don’t see today’s government as the best venue for performing their civic duty, they tend to dismiss all politicians. The need to sack President Trump for yet another unprincipled Baby Boomer” is not worth the effort.

Finally, there is the Red Circle.

The Red Circle is a concept concocted by Mexican pollsters to lump into a population segment the country’s “Talking Heads” and other elite members.

It is a segment that, depending on how well or not wealth is distributed in a society, can be as large as 20% and as small as 5%.

These are individuals that represent the commanding heights of their societies. They attend the same schools and universities; they linger in the same clubs; they enjoy similar vacation destinations and buy similar products and accessories. They live in a world of modernity and innovation.

The Red Circle is in a sense an elaboration of Plato’s Theory of Forms. Plato's idea was that there is another world, a world of ideas, separate from the imperfect physical world we know through our sense organs.

And that perfect world has nothing to do with day-to-day reality. That reality is lived by the remaining 80% of the population that deals with other forms of life.

Measuring the opinion and political preferences of this population segment is quite difficult today because they lack land lines, they don’t read the leading newspapers and they only watch reality shows.

The rest of their lives is taken by work and social media where they pick their political ideas from the exchange of comments to varied posts. This outsiders to the Red Circle are determinant to the success of products, ideas or causes. Yet they are underrepresented in most polls. This explains the shock experienced by most analysts with results from the Brexit referendum and the U.S. and French elections.
The next shock is about to take place South of the Rio Grande where, Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, the leader of Morena, is making extraordinary inroads into the 80% of the population outside the Red Circle.

Just like a stalagmite that slowly but surely creates a palace from water concentration, Mr. Lopez Obrador is taking over Mexican political preferences.

He has connected with a population that has just left poverty and is finding life to be too challenging in terms of security; income growth and quality of public goods. They also are appalled at rampant corruption prevailing among political leaders that up until ten years ago was effectively hushed.

Their perception that on top of being corrupt, their leaders are also ineffectual in defending Mexico’s interests vis-à-vis the U.S. whose leader is building a wall and taking away jobs is leading them to seek a savior. And Mr. Lopez Obrador seems to be casting himself in that role. This is exactly what President Trump did for two years to win the presidency. Stay tuned for 8 interesting years in U.S.-Mexico exchanges!!

Beatrice Rangel is President & CEO of the AMLA Consulting Group, which provides growth and partnership opportunities in US and Hispanic markets. AMLA identifies the best potential partner for businesses which are eager to exploit the growing buying power of the US Hispanic market and for US Corporations seeking to find investment partners in Latin America. Previously, she was Chief of Staff for Venezuela President Carlos Andres Perez as well as Chief Strategist for the Cisneros Group of Companies.

For her work throughout Latin America, Rangel has been honored with the Order of Merit of May from Argentina, the Condor of the Andes Order from Bolivia, the Bernardo O'Higgins Order by Chile, the Order of Boyaca from Colombia, and the National Order of Jose Matías Delgado from El Salvador.

You can follow her on twitter @BEPA2009 or contact her directly at BRangel@amlaconsulting.com.



Also by Beatrice Rangel in her Latin America from 35,000 Feet series

Beatrice Rangel: Rio -- Demystifying the Olympic Games

Beatrice Rangel: The Luddite Syndrome in the Americas

Beatrice Rangel: Venezuela's Unexpected Transition

Beatrice Rangel: We Now Have a Wider Canal But Has Our Wisdom Expanded???

Beatrice Rangel: From Brexit to Tesla, Progress is Made by Leaders!!!

Beatrice Rangel: As the World Goes Latin, Latin America Gets Logical

Beatrice Rangel: On the Difficulties of Fighting Barbarism in Latin America

Beatrice Rangel: The Impending Age of Housekeeping!!!!

Beatrice Rangel: What Happened to All Those Rosy Forecasts for Latin America?

Beatrice Rangel: On Dialogue and the Rules of Geopolitics in Latin America

Beatrice Rangel: The Ides of Wisdom in Venezuela

Beatrice Rangel: On the Discreet Charm of Populism

Beatrice Rangel: Three Ladies in Distress

Beatrice Rangel: Trump, Lula, Kirchner and the Last Tupi-Guaranis

Beatrice Rangel: Time for Departures in the Americas

Beatrice Rangel: A Contrarian View on the Panama Papers

Beatrice Rangel: Brazil's Lady in Her Labyrinth

Beatrice Rangel: Back to a Divided Home!!!

Beatrice Rangel: A Historical Take-Off in the Americas??

Beatrice Rangel: A Skipped Journey, a Reaffirmation and a Clearing of Path in the Americas

Beatrice Rangel: The Demise of Civility in the Americas!!

Beatrice Rangel: The Americas from Boutros Boutros-Ghali to Ban Ki Moon

Beatrice Rangel: The Pope's Difficult Stopover in the Americas

Beatrice Rangel: Farewell to The “Diplomacy of Reason”

Beatrice Rangel: 2 Diseases in Latin America -- Different Prescriptions, Very Different Outcomes

Beatrice Rangel: On Health Alerts and the Long Arm of Justice in the Americas

Beatrice Rangel: When Crime Meets Glory

Beatrice Rangel: Playing Hansel and Gretel in the Americas

Beatrice Rangel: Good News/Bad News Starts The Monkey Leap Year

Beatrice Rangel: The Gifts of Christmas!!!!!!

Beatrice Rangel: Crying Wolf in Venezuela

Beatrice Rangel: A 21st Century Tale of Two Cities

Beatrice Rangel: Are the Americas Ready for President Trump?

Beatrice Rangel: On Predictions of War & Global Confusion

Beatrice Rangel: Paris and the Return of Fear

Beatrice Rangel: Marijuana & Latin America's Next Trade Corridor

Beatrice Rangel: Of Burning Airplanes & Argentinean Tsunamis

Beatrice Rangel: The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly in the Americas!!

Beatrice Rangel: Buena Vista's Magic Covers the Americas

Beatrice Rangel: Pride and Perjury in the Americas

Beatrice Rangel: Trompe L’oeils Proliferate in the Americas

Beatrice Rangel: The Economic Consequences of Peace in Latin America

Beatrice Rangel: Colombia, the FARC & the Makings of Gangland in Latin America

Beatrice Rangel: When Extreme Weather Meets Extreme Politics Calamities are Bound to Happen

Beatrice Rangel: When Ladies Hit 70

Beatrice Rangel: About Uninformed Elites and Gullible Leaders

Beatrice Rangel: On US-Engineered Soft Landings in Cuba and Venezuela

Beatrice Rangel: On the Many Ways Cecil Matters

Beatrice Rangel: Blue Moons Lead to Extraordinary Happenings in the Americas

Beatrice Rangel: On Why Embassy Openings Do Not Necessarily Herald Different Policies

Beatrice Rangel: When Jupiter meets Venus

Beatrice Rangel: When Markets and Manners Crash

Beatrice Rangel: From Grexit to Exit, Contagion is in the Air

Beatrice Rangel: An Infuriated God & An Environmental Crusader Mark the Summer Solstice

Beatrice Rangel: Between Ionesco & the Falklands Syndrome

Beatrice Rangel: The Ugly Americas

Beatrice Rangel: How FIFA Corrupted the Beautiful Game in the Americas and World

Beatrice Rangel: Could the US RICO Act Be Applied to Latin America?

Beatrice Rangel: On the Discreet Charm of Commodities for Latin America

Beatrice Rangel: The End of the Chinese Free Lunch in the Americas!!

Beatrice Rangel: The Crooked Twig of Democracy in the Americas

Beatrice Rangel: Of a White Knight for Three Latin American Ladies in Distress

Beatrice Rangel: Withdrawal Symptoms?

Beatrice Rangel: The Un-Mannered Summit

Beatrice Rangel: Easter Miracles in Latin America and the World

Beatrice Rangel: Two Islands, Two Legacies & One Challenge - Modernity

Beatrice Rangel: Killing Me Softly -- the Obama Administration’s Legacy in Latin America

Beatrice Rangel: Of Upcoming Dynasties and Exhausted Ideas in Latin America

Beatrice Rangel: Of Thunderous Silences, Quiet Noises and Flash Backs in Latin America

Beatrice Rangel: Latin America's Dangerous Exports to Europe & the Demise of an Old Fox

Beatrice Rangel: Of Sweet Deals, Sugar Daddies, Direct Mail & Obama’s Care

Beatrice Rangel: Of Latin American Singing Birds, Femme Fatales & Empty Shelves

Beatrice Rangel: When Flying Dragons & Rage Infusions Turn Against Their Latin American Masters

Beatrice Rangel: Holy Haberdashery!!! Is Fire Building Under the Surface in the Americas??

Beatrice Rangel: 2015 -- A Year for Balance in the Americas???

Beatrice Rangel: Pope Francis Looks at the Americas In His Christmas Remarks

Beatrice Rangel: The Paint Brush Hanging from the Wall in Latin America

Beatrice Rangel: A Future for the Americas??

Beatrice Rangel: Going Forward, Going Backward -- It's the Americas!!

Beatrice Rangel: An Eerily Familiar Week in the Americas

Beatrice Rangel: Tale of Two Walls

Beatrice Rangel: Across the Americas, We the PEOPLE

Beatrice Rangel: Across Latin America, The Populist Beat Goes On!!

Beatrice Rangel: Oh My, The Patron of the Eternal Feminine Has Left Us!!!

Beatrice Rangel: Communism from China to Cuba Finds Corruption!!!

Beatrice Rangel: From Rio to Hong Kong Discontent Taps the East to Find a New Way

Beatrice Rangel: Will Latin America Miss the Broadband Development Target?

Beatrice Rangel: Kissinger’s World Order and Latin America

Beatrice Rangel: The Third Attempt -- Will Modernity Prevail in Latin America?

Rangel: While US is Away, Latin America Rethinks Development Paths

Rangel: In the Midst of Riots, a Star is Born in Brazil

Rangel: In Mexico Cinderella Gets to the Ball while Colombia Gets a Chance at Peace


 

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